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The Eastern Conference finals feature both No. 1 seeds for the first time since the NHL adjusted its playoff format four years ago, and there's no shortage of star power and storylines as the Lightning and Capitals chase their first Stanley Cups of the salary-cap era.
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Washington is making its first conference finals appearance since 1998 after finally vanquishing the rival Penguins in the second round. Tampa, meanwhile, is a Stanley Cup semifinalist for a third time in four years and the heavy favorite advance after facing very little turbulence so far in the postseason.
The Lightning enter the series with their high-powered roster fully intact, while the health of Nicklas Backstrom could loom large for the Capitals. Their top center sat out Game 6 of the second round, but traveled with the team to Tampa and practiced Thursday. Andre Burakovsky also could return for Game 1. They're both considered "day to day." Tom Wilson, suspended three games for his hit to the head of the Penguins' Zach Aston-Reese, will be back in the Capitals' lineup for the opener.
Sporting News' NHL experts Brandon Schlager, Evan Sporer and Jim Cerny make their series predictions below.
Lightning (-155) vs. Capitals (+135): Schedule, picks, predictions
Game 1: May 11 at Tampa Bay, 8 p.m. (NBCSN, fuboTV)
Game 2: May 13 at Tampa Bay, 8 p.m. (NBCSN, fuboTV)
Game 3: May 15 at Washington, 8 p.m. (NBCSN, fuboTV)
Game 4: May 17 at Washington, 8 p.m. (NBCSN, fuboTV)
*Game 5: May 19 at Tampa Bay, 7:15 p.m. (NBC, fuboTV)
*Game 6: May 21 at Washington, 8 p.m. (NBCSN, fuboTV)
*Game 7: May 23 at Tampa Bay, 8 p.m. (NBCSN, fuboTV)
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Offense: The Capitals boast the top offense in these playoffs (3.58 goals per game) on the strength of their big three up front — Ovechkin (8 goals, 15 points), Kuznetsov (7 goals, 14 points), Backstrom (3 goals, 13 points) — who are all producing a point per game. Lars Eller, Jakub Vrana and T.J. Oshie have also stepped up when needed, and Tom Wilson returns from suspension for Game 1. Backstrom's health is the big wild card if they're going to out-gun a Lightning team whose own superstars have yet to play their best hockey (a scary thought), yet Tampa's 3.50 goals per game is just a tick off the Caps' pace. The Lightning simply have too much firepower.
Advantage: Lightning
Defense: John Carlson's offensive contributions both at event strength and on the power play have been important, but the Capitals' top four with Dmitry Orlov, Matt Niskanen and Michal Kempny doesn't hold water against Tampa's glut of No. 1 blueliners. Consider that the Lightning have the luxury of rolling out Norris finalist Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and/or Anton Stralman on the ice at all times, each averaging at least 22 minutes per game. They've barely needed Mikhail Sergachev and have even gotten two goals from unlikely hero Dan Girardi.
Advantage: Lightning
Goaltending: The Capitals are 8-2 since turning to Braden Holtby, who's allowing just over two goals per game and has a .926 save percentage — good for third in the playoffs. He's the biggest difference between an early first-round exit and where the Capitals stand now. Likewise, counterpart Andrei Vasilevskiy (8-2, 2.20, .927) has also been stellar through two rounds, showing no signs of fatigue that led to his second-half slump.
Advantage: Split
Special teams: This is a meeting between the top two power plays remaining in the postseason (Capitals, 30.9 percent; Lightning, 26.3 percent). They're both lethal in their own ways, whether it's Ovechkin or Carlson winding up for one-timers or Kucherov and Stamkos playing tic-tac-toe. The Achilles' heel for Tampa all season has been its penalty kill. That's continued into the playoffs (74.2 percent), something Washington will need to exploit.
Advantage: Capitals
Coaching: Barry Trotz likely saved his job by going back to Holtby in net after the failed Philipp Grubauer experiment. Whether it was a stroke of coaching genius or sheer luck is open for debate, but it has worked. The Lightning bench features one of hockey's great tacticians in Jon Cooper, and he can do no wrong so far these playoffs.
Advantage: Lightning
Staff predictions
Brandon Schlager (9-2): I for one am thrilled for the Capitals and Ovechkin, who deserve all the cred they're finally receiving and then some for shaking the Penguins from their shoulders once and for all. It's amusing and all too ironic this is the team that finally accomplished it and ended the D.C. sports curse as those Presidents' Trophies sit and gather dust. Through a mostly stress-free regular season, Ovechkin's been responsible for much of the heavy lifting in what will go down as a defining performance in his Hall of Fame career. It would be a great story to see it end with a Stanley Cup, but I think the Lightning, unscathed in series victories over the Bruins and Devils, simply will prove to be a matchup nightmare for a Capitals team that took a few lumps from Columbus and Pittsburgh. Tampa has given us no reason to question there's a more superior team in the Eastern Conference. Why start now?
Lightning in 6 games
Evan Sporer (7-4): Here’s the problem with the teams that keep coming up against the Lightning: Tampa Bay’s defense is much better than the team they just finished beating. Where the Bruins top line ran roughshod over the Maple Leafs' porous defense in round one, the likes of Hedman, McDonagh and Stralman playing with Point’s line was the difference-maker in round two.
The Capitals' forward depth is a bit shaky (I think that’s a fair statement when Tom Wilson is playing on your top line) and I don’t see them stretching out Tampa or giving them too many problems. Whatever this injury is to Backstrom, if it’s anything long term that’s of major, major concern to the Capitals. Expect Cooper to go with Point’s line against Ovechkin’s as much as he can, which means J.T. Miller, Stamkos and Kucherov would get the Capitals' second line (possibly sans Backstrom). And the Stamkos line is just starting to get hot, which is bad news no matter how healthy the Capitals are.
I think this series goes six games because Holtby has looked like the goaltender who entered these playoffs with the highest-ever postseason save percentage (yes, that belonged to Braden Holtby). He might be able to mask some of the Capitals' deficiencies in a seven-game series, but in virtually all instances, if one team is much better than the other, even a hot streak from a goaltender or a forward is too much to overcome.
And this is what this Lightning team was built for. They literally have three No. 1 defensemen, making Cooper’s life much easier in terms of matchup flexibility. They have a defensively responsible line that can also score, and a scoring line that can score in bunches. It’s amazing that this was the year the Capitals got over the second-round hump because there have been so many better versions of this team over the past few seasons. The Lightning, on the other hand, are beginning to look like the juggernauts many pegged them as before a mid-season lull. Oh, and I picked Tampa Bay to win the East, so no reason to deviate from that prediction after what they’ve shown thus far.
Lightning in 6 games
Jim Cerny (8-3): This is the exact matchup I expected — and predicted — for the Eastern Conference finals. Now the question is if I believe enough in this being the Capitals’ year after finally getting over the hump and out of the second round or do I stick with my original pick that the Lightning will play in the Stanley Cup Final?
Washington has a lot of mojo on its side, the magic carpet ride starting with the splendid play of Holtby (8-3, 2.04, .926) in goal, the NHL’s top-ranked postseason offense and second-best power play which is clicking at 31 percent, contributions up and down its lineup — including the NHL postseason debuts of seven rookies already this spring, and standout play from its top players — Ovechkin (8 goals, 15 points), Kuznetsov (7 goals, 14 points, overtime series winner against Pittsburgh) and Carlson (11 points, 10 on the power play). Oh, and did I mention that the Caps finally beat the Penguins and advanced past the second round for the first time in the Ovechkin Era?
Of course, not all is perfect in the Caps world, starting with injuries to Backstrom and Burakovsky, which could definitively change the balance of power in this series should one or both remain out, or compromised, for an extended period.
Then there is the Lightning, a team also averaging better than 3.5 goals per game this spring like the Caps, featuring a potent power play (26.3 percent) and rock-solid play between the pipes, as Vasilevskiy is 8-2, 2.20, .927 through two rounds. What really sets the Lightning apart, so far, in the playoffs is their tremendous depth up front and on the back end — which is so complete that Tampa Bay knocked the Bruins out in five games without receiving dominant play from either of its two superstar forwards. In fact, Point has been Tampa Bay’s best forward through the first two rounds. And it sure doesn’t hurt to have McDonagh on your SECOND defense pairing.
So, who wins? Holtby will have to steal this series for Washington in order for the Capitals to reach the Final, and I don’t see that happening. Vasilevskiy is up to besting Holtby, Kucherov and Stamkos take the series over, Hedman is a monster on defense and Tampa Bay’s depth is too much for Washington to match.
